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This paper investigates inflation risks for 12 Middle East and Central Asia countries, with an equal share of commodities exporters and importers. The empirical strategy leverages the recent developments in the estimation of macroeconomic risks and uses a semi-parametric approach that balances well flexibility and robustness for density projections. The paper uncovers interesting features of inflation dynamics in the region, including the role of backward versus forward-looking drivers, non-linearities, and heterogeneous and delayed exchange rate pass-through. The results have important implications for the conduct of monetary policy and central bank communication in the Middle East and Central Asia and emerging markets in general.

Iran, Islamic Republic of

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This paper investigates the role that state-owned enterprises (SOEs) played during periods of economic sanctions against Iran. Using difference-in-difference techniques and exploiting survey data on the manufacturing sector, our analysis shows that the sanctions reduced revenues, profits, and productivity of both SOEs and private firms in targeted industries, with larger impacts in SOEs. In contrast to private firms, wages and employment levels increased in SOEs, suggesting that SOEs were used to protect employment during the economic crisis. In terms of distributional impacts, men were the hardest hit by the sanctions in private firms but benefited the most from the increase in wages in SOEs.

Iran, Islamic Republic of

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Etrange pays que cet unique Etat chiite, qui n'a jamais rompu avec son passé préislamique et qui, malgré son particularisme, a toujours exercé un rayonnement culturel bien au-delà de ses frontières. Curieux destin que celui de ce vieil empire aujourd'hui entouré de jeunes Etats, objet pendant tout le XIXe et le début du XXe siècle de rivalités entre puissances russe et britannique, et qui est aussi la première nation du Moyen-Orient à s'être dotée d'une Constitution moderne dès 1906. Précurseur dans la nationalisation de ses ressources pétrolières, l'Iran est également le premier pays à connaître une révolution islamique qui provoque un séisme politique sans précédent à travers le monde musulman et au-delà. Aujourd'hui, alors que ses voisins tentent d'endiguer la montée de l'islamisme radical, il cherche la voie pour sortir d'une révolution religieuse. L'histoire contemporaine de l'Iran, à la fois laboratoire politique pour le monde et nation à part, du point de vue identitaire et historique, mérite donc le détour. Le présent ouvrage n'a d'autre ambition que d'initier le lecteur à cette histoire foisonnante et méconnue de l'Iran des deux derniers siècles (1796-2009).

Iran --- History --- Histoire --- Geopolitics --- Foreign relations --- Politics and government --- IR / Iran --- 92 --- Geschiedenis. --- Histoire. --- History. --- 92 Geschiedenis. --- 92 Histoire. --- 92 History. --- Geschiedenis --- Geopolitics - Iran --- Iran - History - 20th century --- Iran - Foreign relations --- Iran - Politics and government

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The Islamic Republic of Iran has committed itself to substantial trade and market reform in its Third Five-Year Development Plan. It started out with nontariff barriers on all products, a dual exchange rate regime with the market rate more than four times the official rate, and domestic energy subsidies equal to about 90 percent of the cost of energy products. Many of these policies were justified as helping the poor. To analyze the effect of the reforms, separately and together, the authors develop a multisector computable general equilibrium model with 10 rural and 10 urban households. They find that the combined reforms could generate welfare gains equal to about 50 percent of aggregate consumer income. These gains reflect the large initial distortions-for example, energy subsidies equal to about 18 percent of GDP, and retail energy prices equal to about 10 percent of world market prices. Separately, trade reform would lead to gains of about 5 percent of income, exchange rate reform to gains of 7 percent of income, and energy pricing reform to gains of 33 percent of income. The authors' results show that well-intentioned commodity subsidy policies for the poor can have perverse effects. Direct income payments to all households (not just the poor) would vastly increase the incomes of the poor compared with the status quo. Moreover, if the combined reforms were implemented, the poorest rural household would receive gains equal to about 290 percent of its income, and the poorest urban household gains equal to about 140 percent of its income.

World Bank, Washington, DC. --- Iran --- Economic policy.

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Iran is located at the cross-roads of world civilization and inter-continental trade, and has, throughout its long history, played an important role in the movement of goods, people and ideas. The political factors that have hobbled Iran's development have hitherto prevented scholars, business practitioners and policymakers fully appreciating Iran's potential as a key player in the economic, political and technological development of its region and beyond. This book provides its readers with a fuller understanding of the economic complexities of the present and the promise of a future rebirth in an important country, perhaps the last emerging market; a country whose potential has been dormant or held in check, but whose significance has remained unaffected. Although Iran is a large, untapped market and a great potential contributor to the world economy, after more than three decades of relative isolation, our knowledge of this country has been constrained by the dearth of exchanges and the opacity of Iranian society. The contributing scholars offer a broad overview of the challenges and opportunities presented by the gradual reintegration of Iran into the world economy.

E-books --- Iran --- Economic policy. --- Foreign relations. --- Economic conditions --- Business & Economics --- International business. --- International --- General. --- Management.